Why Upsets Happen in Fencing: My October NAC Wake-Up Call

I went into October NAC feeling pretty confident about Y14.

I was seeded 12th, and my pools went well. I won four out of five bouts, which seemed like a good start.

Then I lost my first DE, 15–8.

I finished 66th.

Not exactly what I expected.

The opponent I underestimated

When I saw who I was fencing in my first DE, I didn't recognize his name.

After competing nationally for a few years, you start recognizing a lot of the same fencers. Especially the ones who regularly finish near the top.

I didn't know this opponent.

He was from a different division

, and he had an E rating.

I figured I had a pretty good chance of winning.

That was my first mistake.

He was actually seeded 19th going into the tournament, which wasn't that far from my 12th seed.

But I wasn't really thinking about that.

I was thinking about the fact that I didn't recognize him.

And somehow, I decided that meant he wouldn't be very difficult to fence.

I was wrong.

When the bout started going badly

My opponent started scoring, and I couldn't figure out how to stop him.

I kept losing touches.

The more I fell behind, the more frustrated I got. Instead of figuring out what was working for him and changing my approach, I kept trying to get back into the bout.

It wasn't working.

The final score was 15–8.

He beat me pretty convincingly.

He ended up finishing 63rd, just a few places ahead of me.

Looking back, the difference between our seeds wasn't even that big. We were both in roughly the same part of the field.

But I had gone into the bout expecting an easy win.

And when it wasn't easy, I wasn't ready.

Was it really an upset?

This is something I've been thinking about since the tournament.

In fencing, an upset usually means a lower-seeded fencer beats someone seeded higher.

Technically, my loss was an upset because I was seeded 12th and my opponent was seeded 19th.

But was it really that surprising?

There were only seven places between us in the original seeding.

And his E rating didn't necessarily mean he was a weaker fencer.

A rating tells you something about a fencer's previous tournament results, but it doesn't tell you everything about how well they fence today.

Someone might have improved a lot. They might compete in a different region. Or maybe they just haven't had the opportunity to earn a higher rating yet.

I think I confused not knowing someone with knowing they weren't very good.

Those are definitely not the same thing.

Why do upsets happen?

I've been looking at tournament results for my Fencing Lab project, and this experience made me think more about upsets.

There are a few reasons I think they happen.

Rankings aren't perfect.

Rankings are based on past results. They don't always show how someone is fencing right now.

Different fencing styles matter.

Some opponents are harder to fence than others. Even if you're ranked higher, that doesn't mean your usual actions will work against everyone.

One bad bout can end your tournament.

In pools, you can lose a bout and still do well overall.

In DEs, you get one chance.

Expectations can mess with your fencing.

This was probably the biggest problem for me.

I expected to win. When I started losing, I wasn't prepared for it.

And I didn't adjust quickly enough.

Can tournament data explain upsets?

This is one of the questions I want to explore next in Fencing Lab.

I've already analyzed several national Cadet tournaments to see how well pre-tournament seeding and FencingTracker Strength Ratings predict results.

Higher-seeded and stronger-rated fencers generally do better.

But obviously, they don't always win.

I want to look more closely at the exceptions.

For example:

• How often does a lower-seeded fencer beat someone seeded higher?

• Does the difference between their seeds matter?

• Are upsets more common in pools or DEs?

• Are upsets between closely seeded fencers actually that unusual?

That last question is especially interesting after October NAC.

Maybe a 19th seed beating a 12th seed isn't very surprising at all.

I'd like to find out.

Of course, the data won't tell me what a fencer was thinking during a bout.

But it might help me understand how often unexpected results happen.

What I learned

I don't think I need to memorize every fencer's name before a tournament.

But I do need to stop making assumptions.

An E-rated fencer can beat a B-rated fencer.

Someone I've never heard of can be really good.

And being seeded 12th doesn't mean much if I don't fence well when it matters.

At my next tournament, I want to pay more attention to what's actually happening on the strip instead of what I expected to happen.

Because losing 15–8 to someone I thought I would beat was a pretty good reminder that rankings don't win bouts.

You still have to fence them.